Today / Buchholz vs Harksheide

Buchholz vs Harksheide Prediction

Hamburg - 23 ·Tuesday, April 14, 2026

Buchholz

PPG 1.64 · HOME

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Harksheide

PPG 0.69 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-11.0%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-03.1%1-13.6%1-22.1%1-30.8%1-4+0.3%2 2-05.5%2-16.4%2-23.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.6%3-17.7%3-24.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-015.1%4+-117.6%4+-210.2%4+-34.0%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 81.6% — — —

Draw 10.5% — — —

Away win 7.9% — — —

Over 2.5 85.4% — — —

Over 3.5 70.0% — — —

BTTS 66.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 87%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)3.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob66.9%

H 82% / xG 3.6-1.2 / O2.5 85% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.7%

#2 4–1✓ 6.9%

#3 3–0 6.6%

#4 2–1 6.4%

#5 4–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Buchholz3.6

Harksheide1.2

COMBINED 4.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 85.4% · O3.5 PROB 70.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BUCHHOLZ · PPG 1.64

HARKSHEIDE · PPG 0.69

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in GOOD form (1.64), Away POOR (0.69) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Buchholz (H) 81.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 10.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Harksheide (A) 7.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Buchholz face Harksheide on Tuesday, April 14, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Buchholz a 82% chance, the draw 11% and Harksheide 8%, so Buchholz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.6 for Buchholz and 1.2 for Harksheide (4.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 85% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Buchholz are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 0.69 for Harksheide. This match finished 4-1.

Buchholz vs Harksheide Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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