Today / Lund vs Ariana

Lund vs Ariana Prediction

Friday, June 12, 2026

Lund

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Ariana

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-15.8%0-23.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.7%1-110.6%1-26.5%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.7%2-25.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.8%3-15.9%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.0%4+-22.5%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% — — —

Draw 22.9% — — —

Away win 27.5% — — —

Over 2.5 64.2% — — —

Over 3.5 39.8% — — —

BTTS 61.6% — — —

Home O1.5 56.0% — — —

Away O1.5 33.0% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.6%

H 50% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 1–0 8.7%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lund1.8

Ariana1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

LUND · PPG 3.00

ARIANA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=49.6%

Win probability 1X2

Lund (H) 49.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ariana (A) 27.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Lund face Ariana on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lund a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Ariana 28%, so Lund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Lund and 1.2 for Ariana (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lund are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Ariana. This match finished 1-4.

Lund vs Ariana Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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