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Adelaide Comets vs West Adelaide Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, June 12, 2026, 11:00

Adelaide Comets

PPG 1.00 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

West Adelaide

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-15.2%0-25.5%0-33.8%0-4+3.3%1 1-03.9%1-18.3%1-28.7%1-36.1%1-4+5.3%2 2-03.1%2-16.6%2-27.0%2-34.9%2-4+4.2%3 3-01.7%3-13.5%3-23.7%3-32.6%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-12.0%4+-22.1%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.2% 42.0% 2.38 -23.4%

Draw 22.3% 28.2% 3.55 -12.5%

Away win 45.5% 42.0% 2.38 +8.3%

Over 2.5 65.8% 63.7% 1.57 +3.3%

Over 3.5 42.8% 44.4% 2.25 -3.7%

BTTS 63.7% 66.7% 1.50 -4.5%

Home O1.5 51.6% 50.0% 2.00 +3.2%

Away O1.5 51.7% 52.4% 1.91 -1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 53%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 22%

ROI 4.6%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.7%

A 46% / xG 1.6-2.1 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 2–1 6.6%

#5 1–3 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Adelaide Comets1.6

West Adelaide2.1

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 42.8%

Form & verdict PPG

ADELAIDE COMETS · PPG 1.00

WEST ADELAIDE · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away AVERAGE (1.17)

Win probability 1X2

Adelaide Comets (H) 32.2%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -23.4%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.5%

West Adelaide (A) 45.5%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +8.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Adelaide Comets face West Adelaide in Australia - South Australia NPL on Friday, June 12, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Adelaide Comets a 32% chance, the draw 22% and West Adelaide 46%, so West Adelaide are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Adelaide Comets and 2.1 for West Adelaide (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Adelaide Comets are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.17 for West Adelaide. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +32.9%. This match finished 3-2.

Adelaide Comets vs West Adelaide Prediction— Australia - South Australia NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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