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Astrio vs Lindome Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland - 12 ·Thursday, June 11, 2026, 17:30

Astrio

PPG 0.80 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Lindome

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 58.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-111.9%0-211.1%0-36.9%0-4+5.0%1 1-05.6%1-110.5%1-29.8%1-36.1%1-4+4.4%2 2-02.5%2-14.7%2-24.4%2-32.7%2-4+2.0%3 3-00.7%3-11.4%3-21.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 18.1% 29.4% 3.40 -23.1%

Draw 23.2% 26.3% 3.80 -7.1%

Away win 58.7% 54.6% 1.83 +7.4%

Over 2.5 54.4% 70.4% 1.42 -22.8%

Over 3.5 32.5% 50.0% 2.00 -35.0%

BTTS 52.2% 72.5% 1.38 -28.0%

Home O1.5 33.0% 47.6% 2.10 -30.7%

Away O1.5 49.4% 65.4% 1.53 -24.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob52.2%

A 59% / xG 0.9-1.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 0–2 11.1%

#3 0–1 11.9%

#4 1–2✓ 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Astrio0.9

Lindome1.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ASTRIO · PPG 0.80

LINDOME · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Astrio (H) 18.1%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -23.1%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -7.1%

Lindome (A) 58.7%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV +7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Astrio face Lindome in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Thursday, June 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Astrio a 18% chance, the draw 23% and Lindome 59%, so Lindome are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Astrio and 1.9 for Lindome (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Astrio are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 2.00 for Lindome. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +7.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Astrio vs Lindome Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland Predictions