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Boljan vs Astrio Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland - 11 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 17:00

Boljan

PPG 1.75 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Astrio

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-15.4%0-22.2%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.5%1-110.3%1-24.2%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.7%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.6%3-16.2%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.5%4+-14.5%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 54.1% 1.85 +3.6%

Draw 23.6% 27.0% 3.70 -7.6%

Away win 20.4% 29.4% 3.40 -18.4%

Over 2.5 53.1% 66.7% 1.50 -20.3%

Over 3.5 31.3% 44.4% 2.25 -29.6%

BTTS 51.9% 69.0% 1.45 -24.7%

Home O1.5 55.0% 60.6% 1.65 -9.3%

Away O1.5 27.9% 43.5% 2.30 -21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob51.9%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.8 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.9%

#2 1–1 10.3%

#3 1–0 12.5%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boljan1.9

Astrio0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.1% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BOLJAN · PPG 1.75

ASTRIO · PPG 0.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=56.0%

Win probability 1X2

Boljan (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +3.6%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -7.6%

Astrio (A) 20.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boljan face Astrio in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boljan a 56% chance, the draw 24% and Astrio 20%, so Boljan are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Boljan and 0.8 for Astrio (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boljan are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.40 for Astrio. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +3.6%. This match finished 3-1.

Boljan vs Astrio Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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