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Hestrafor vs Dalstorps Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland - 12 ·Thursday, June 11, 2026, 17:00

Hestrafor

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dalstorps

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-16.8%0-25.6%0-33.1%0-4+1.8%1 1-06.4%1-110.5%1-28.6%1-34.7%1-4+2.8%2 2-04.9%2-18.1%2-26.6%2-33.6%2-4+2.2%3 3-02.5%3-14.1%3-23.4%3-31.9%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.2%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.2% 39.2% 2.55 +2.5%

Draw 23.9% 27.8% 3.60 -8.4%

Away win 35.9% 43.5% 2.30 -17.4%

Over 2.5 64.2% 67.6% 1.48 -5.0%

Over 3.5 39.8% 45.5% 2.20 -12.4%

BTTS 62.5% 71.4% 1.40 -12.5%

Home O1.5 47.1% 52.6% 1.90 -10.5%

Away O1.5 49.4% 55.6% 1.80 -11.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob62.5%

A 36% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 0–0 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hestrafor1.5

Dalstorps1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

HESTRAFOR · PPG 1.40

DALSTORPS · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Hestrafor (H) 40.2%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +2.5%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.4%

Dalstorps (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -17.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hestrafor face Dalstorps in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Thursday, June 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hestrafor a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Dalstorps 36%, so Hestrafor are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hestrafor and 1.6 for Dalstorps (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hestrafor are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.20 for Dalstorps. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +2.5%. This match finished 2-3.

Hestrafor vs Dalstorps Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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