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Qviding vs Astorps FF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland - 11 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 14:00

Qviding

PPG 0.80 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Astorps FF

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.4%0-22.2%0-31.4%0-4+1.0%1 1-03.2%1-15.9%1-25.5%1-33.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-04.0%2-17.4%2-26.9%2-34.3%2-4+3.0%3 3-03.3%3-16.2%3-25.8%3-33.6%3-4+2.5%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-17.1%4+-26.6%4+-34.1%4+-4+2.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% 45.5% 2.20 +11.1%

Draw 21.6% 26.0% 3.85 -10.1%

Away win 27.9% 38.5% 2.60 -16.5%

Over 2.5 73.6% 73.5% 1.36 +0.1%

Over 3.5 46.8% 51.3% 1.95 -8.7%

BTTS 63.8% 75.2% 1.33 -15.2%

Home O1.5 68.8% 60.6% 1.65 +13.5%

Away O1.5 44.6% 55.6% 1.80 -19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.8%

H 50% / xG 2.5-1.9 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.4%

#2 2–2✓ 6.9%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 3–1 6.2%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Qviding2.5

Astorps FF1.9

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.6% · O3.5 PROB 46.8%

Form & verdict PPG

QVIDING · PPG 0.80

ASTORPS FF · PPG 1.40

⚠ MIXED SIGNALS - Model favors home but form suggests away strength

70%

CAUTION_HOME

Caution: Away form (1.40) strong but model favors Home (P=50.5%)

Win probability 1X2

Qviding (H) 50.5%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV +11.1%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -10.1%

Astorps FF (A) 27.9%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Qviding face Astorps FF in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Qviding a 51% chance, the draw 22% and Astorps FF 28%, so Qviding are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Qviding and 1.9 for Astorps FF (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Qviding are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 1.40 for Astorps FF. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.6%. This match finished 2-2.

Qviding vs Astorps FF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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