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Lindome vs Kongahalla Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland - 11 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 17:00

Lindome

PPG 0.80 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Kongahalla

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-14.4%0-22.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-07.6%1-19.3%1-25.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.9%2 2-07.9%2-19.7%2-26.0%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.5%3-16.8%3-24.2%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.7%4+-15.8%4+-23.5%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.2% 50.0% 2.00 +14.4%

Draw 21.8% 26.0% 3.85 -9.6%

Away win 21.0% 33.9% 2.95 -22.8%

Over 2.5 64.1% 70.4% 1.42 -9.0%

Over 3.5 40.7% 48.8% 2.05 -16.6%

BTTS 61.3% 72.5% 1.38 -15.4%

Home O1.5 60.4% 61.7% 1.62 -2.1%

Away O1.5 32.0% 50.0% 2.00 -36.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 73%

BTTS 73%

Score Hit 37%

ROI 0.3%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.3%

H 57% / xG 2.1-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.3%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 3–1 6.8%

#5 1–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lindome2.1

Kongahalla1.2

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.7%

Form & verdict PPG

LINDOME · PPG 0.80

KONGAHALLA · PPG 0.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: POOR (0.80) > Away POOR (0.50)

Win probability 1X2

Lindome (H) 57.2%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +14.4%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV -9.6%

Kongahalla (A) 21.0%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -22.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lindome face Kongahalla in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lindome a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Kongahalla 21%, so Lindome are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Lindome and 1.2 for Kongahalla (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lindome are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.50 for Kongahalla. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +14.4%. This match finished 2-2.

Lindome vs Kongahalla Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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