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Jonsered vs Galtabäcks Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 11 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 17:00

Jonsered

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Galtabäcks

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 70% chance

Combined xG of 3.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.1% vs bookmaker-implied 72.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-15.0%0-23.8%0-31.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-06.4%1-19.5%1-27.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.8%2 2-06.1%2-19.1%2-26.8%2-33.4%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.8%3-15.7%3-24.3%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-14.2%4+-23.1%4+-31.6%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 57.8% 1.73 -24.8%

Draw 22.0% 25.0% 4.00 -7.2%

Away win 34.5% 27.4% 3.65 +25.9%

Over 2.5 64.1% 72.5% 1.38 -11.5%

Over 3.5 40.7% 51.3% 1.95 -20.6%

BTTS 62.2% 72.5% 1.38 -14.2%

Home O1.5 55.0% 69.0% 1.45 -20.3%

Away O1.5 44.6% 46.5% 2.15 -4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.2%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.5%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jonsered1.9

Galtabäcks1.5

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JONSERED · PPG 1.75

GALTABÄCKS · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

Chance this pick lands

70%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=43.5%

Win probability 1X2

Jonsered (H) 43.5%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -24.8%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -7.2%

Galtabäcks (A) 34.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV +25.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jonsered face Galtabäcks in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jonsered a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Galtabäcks 35%, so Jonsered are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Jonsered and 1.5 for Galtabäcks (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jonsered are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.60 for Galtabäcks. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +25.9%. This match finished 4-2.

Jonsered vs Galtabäcks Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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