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Kubikenborg vs Lucksta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - 11 ·Thursday, June 11, 2026, 17:00

Kubikenborg

PPG 2.33 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Lucksta

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.0 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 69.3% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.8%0-13.0%0-22.5%0-31.4%0-4+0.8%1 1-04.2%1-17.0%1-25.9%1-33.3%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.0%2-18.3%2-26.9%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-03.9%3-16.5%3-25.4%3-33.0%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-16.7%4+-25.6%4+-33.1%4+-4+1.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 54.6% 1.83 -4.5%

Draw 20.9% 27.8% 3.60 -14.9%

Away win 26.8% 27.8% 3.60 -2.1%

Over 2.5 69.3% 67.6% 1.48 +2.6%

Over 3.5 47.0% 46.5% 2.15 +1.1%

BTTS 66.7% 70.4% 1.42 -5.3%

Home O1.5 61.0% 63.7% 1.57 -4.2%

Away O1.5 49.4% 44.4% 2.25 +11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -30.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob66.7%

H 52% / xG 2.4-1.7 / O2.5 69% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.3%

#2 1–1 7.0%

#3 2–2 6.9%

#4 3–1✓ 6.5%

#5 1–2 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kubikenborg2.4

Lucksta1.7

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 69.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KUBIKENBORG · PPG 2.33

LUCKSTA · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.33) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Kubikenborg (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -4.5%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -14.9%

Lucksta (A) 26.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kubikenborg face Lucksta in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Thursday, June 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kubikenborg a 52% chance, the draw 21% and Lucksta 27%, so Kubikenborg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Kubikenborg and 1.7 for Lucksta (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 69% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kubikenborg are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.60 for Lucksta. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 3-1.

Kubikenborg vs Lucksta Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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