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IFK Ostersund vs Friska Viljor Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - 10 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 11:00

IFK Ostersund

PPG 1.50 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Friska Viljor

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 79.4% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-11.2%0-21.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-01.8%1-13.8%1-23.9%1-32.7%1-4+2.3%2 2-02.8%2-15.7%2-26.0%2-34.2%2-4+3.5%3 3-02.8%3-15.8%3-26.1%3-34.2%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-19.4%4+-29.8%4+-36.8%4+-4+5.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.8% 61.0% 1.64 -13.4%

Draw 20.2% 24.4% 4.10 -10.3%

Away win 27.0% 24.4% 4.10 +6.4%

Over 2.5 79.4% 76.9% 1.30 +3.2%

Over 3.5 54.4% 57.1% 1.75 -4.8%

BTTS 65.7% 76.9% 1.30 -14.6%

Home O1.5 74.3% 73.5% 1.36 +1.1%

Away O1.5 44.6% 47.6% 2.10 -6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -30.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob65.7%

H 53% / xG 3.0-2.1 / O2.5 79% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 6.1%

#2 2–2 6.0%

#3 3–1 5.8%

#4 2–1 5.7%

#5 4–2 4.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Ostersund3.0

Friska Viljor2.1

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.4% · O3.5 PROB 54.4%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK OSTERSUND · PPG 1.50

FRISKA VILJOR · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

IFK Ostersund (H) 52.8%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -13.4%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -10.3%

Friska Viljor (A) 27.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +6.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Ostersund face Friska Viljor in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Ostersund a 53% chance, the draw 20% and Friska Viljor 27%, so IFK Ostersund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for IFK Ostersund and 2.1 for Friska Viljor (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 79% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Ostersund are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.00 for Friska Viljor. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.7%. This match finished 0-0.

IFK Ostersund vs Friska Viljor Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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