Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland / IFK Umea vs Taftea

IFK Umea vs Taftea Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - 10 ·Wednesday, June 3, 2026, 17:00

IFK Umea

PPG 0.00 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY O1.5

Taftea

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 83.6% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-14.4%0-28.0%0-39.8%0-4+23.1%1 1-00.9%1-13.4%1-26.1%1-37.5%1-4+17.7%2 2-00.4%2-11.3%2-22.3%2-32.9%2-4+6.8%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.6%3-30.7%3-4+1.7%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 12.3% 13.9% 7.20 -6.9%

Draw 19.1% 20.0% 5.00 -2.7%

Away win 68.6% 75.2% 1.33 -8.8%

Over 2.5 73.6% 72.5% 1.38 +1.6%

Over 3.5 53.2% 51.3% 1.95 +3.7%

BTTS 55.4% 63.7% 1.57 -13.0%

Home O1.5 33.7% 30.3% 3.30 +11.2%

Away O1.5 83.6% 78.1% 1.28 +7.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -30.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)3.7 BTTS prob55.4%

A 69% / xG 0.8-3.7 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 9.8%

#2 0–4 8.9%

#3 0–2 8.0%

#4 1–3 7.5%

#5 1–4 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Umea0.8

Taftea3.7

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.6% · O3.5 PROB 53.2%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK UMEA · PPG 0.00

TAFTEA · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

IFK Umea (H) 12.3%

ODDS 7.20 · IMPLIED 13.9% EV -6.9%

Draw 19.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -2.7%

Taftea (A) 68.6%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Umea face Taftea in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Wednesday, June 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Umea a 12% chance, the draw 19% and Taftea 69%, so Taftea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for IFK Umea and 3.7 for Taftea (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Umea are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Taftea. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +26.8%. This match finished 1-5.

IFK Umea vs Taftea Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland Predictions