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Skelleftea vs IFK Umea Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - 11 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 11:00

Skelleftea

PPG 1.75 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

IFK Umea

PPG 0.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 77.8% vs bookmaker-implied 95.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-10.6%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-04.7%1-12.5%1-20.7%1-30.1%1-4+0.0%2 2-09.2%2-14.8%2-21.3%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.9%3-16.3%3-21.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-032.1%4+-116.9%4+-24.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.6% 99.0% 1.01 -24.6%

Draw 18.2% 8.3% 12.00 +71.0%

Away win 7.2% 2.9% 34.00 +86.9%

Over 2.5 73.6% 89.3% 1.12 -17.6%

Over 3.5 54.4% 75.2% 1.33 -27.7%

BTTS 48.0% 39.2% 2.55 +22.4%

Home O1.5 77.8% 95.2% 1.05 -18.3%

Away O1.5 19.3% 11.8% 8.50 +38.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -30.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.0%

H 75% / xG 3.9-0.5 / O2.5 74% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0✓ 11.9%

#2 4–0 11.5%

#3 2–0 9.2%

#4 5–0 8.9%

#5 3–1 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Skelleftea3.9

IFK Umea0.5

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.6% · O3.5 PROB 54.4%

Form & verdict PPG

SKELLEFTEA · PPG 1.75

IFK UMEA · PPG 0.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

40%

NEUTRAL

No PPG data

Win probability 1X2

Skelleftea (H) 74.6%

ODDS 1.01 · IMPLIED 99.0% EV -24.6%

Draw 18.2%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +71.0%

IFK Umea (A) 7.2%

ODDS 34.00 · IMPLIED 2.9% EV +86.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Skelleftea face IFK Umea in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Skelleftea a 75% chance, the draw 18% and IFK Umea 7%, so Skelleftea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.9 for Skelleftea and 0.5 for IFK Umea (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Skelleftea are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.00 for IFK Umea. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +86.9%. This match finished 3-0.

Skelleftea vs IFK Umea Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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