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Fransta vs IFK Ostersund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - 11 ·Wednesday, June 10, 2026, 17:30

Fransta

PPG 1.25 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

IFK Ostersund

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.2%0-12.9%0-23.6%0-32.9%0-4+3.2%1 1-02.4%1-15.8%1-27.1%1-35.8%1-4+6.3%2 2-02.3%2-15.7%2-27.0%2-35.7%2-4+6.3%3 3-01.5%3-13.8%3-24.6%3-33.8%3-4+4.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.9%4+-23.6%4+-32.9%4+-4+3.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.2% — — —

Draw 21.2% — — —

Away win 44.6% — — —

Over 2.5 73.0% — — —

Over 3.5 52.1% — — —

BTTS 67.2% — — —

Home O1.5 59.1% — — —

Away O1.5 67.9% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -30.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)2.4 BTTS prob67.2%

A 45% / xG 2.0-2.4 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2✓ 7.1%

#2 2–2 7.0%

#3 1–1 5.8%

#4 1–3 5.8%

#5 2–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fransta2.0

IFK Ostersund2.4

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 52.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FRANSTA · PPG 1.25

IFK OSTERSUND · PPG 1.25

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.25), Away AVERAGE (1.25)

Win probability 1X2

Fransta (H) 34.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

IFK Ostersund (A) 44.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fransta face IFK Ostersund in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Wednesday, June 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fransta a 34% chance, the draw 21% and IFK Ostersund 45%, so IFK Ostersund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Fransta and 2.4 for IFK Ostersund (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fransta are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.25 for IFK Ostersund. This match finished 1-2.

Fransta vs IFK Ostersund Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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