Today / Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland / Gottne IF vs Friska Viljor

Gottne IF vs Friska Viljor Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - 11 ·Thursday, June 11, 2026, 17:00

Gottne IF

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Friska Viljor

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.1%0-21.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.6%1 1-03.4%1-15.7%1-24.9%1-32.8%1-4+1.7%2 2-04.5%2-17.6%2-26.5%2-33.7%2-4+2.3%3 3-04.0%3-16.8%3-25.8%3-33.3%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-18.7%4+-27.4%4+-34.2%4+-4+2.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.4% 56.5% 1.77 -3.7%

Draw 21.5% 25.6% 3.90 -9.7%

Away win 24.1% 27.8% 3.60 -7.9%

Over 2.5 73.0% 73.5% 1.36 -0.7%

Over 3.5 47.0% 52.6% 1.90 -10.7%

BTTS 66.7% 75.2% 1.33 -11.3%

Home O1.5 61.0% 69.0% 1.45 -11.6%

Away O1.5 49.4% 47.6% 2.10 +3.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -30.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 63%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob66.7%

H 54% / xG 2.7-1.7 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 67%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.6%

#2 3–1 6.8%

#3 1–1✓ 5.7%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 3–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gottne IF2.7

Friska Viljor1.7

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.0% · O3.5 PROB 47.0%

Form & verdict PPG

GOTTNE IF · PPG 1.75

FRISKA VILJOR · PPG 0.33

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: GOOD form (1.75) vs P(Home)=54.4%

Win probability 1X2

Gottne IF (H) 54.4%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV -3.7%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.7%

Friska Viljor (A) 24.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gottne IF face Friska Viljor in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Thursday, June 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gottne IF a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Friska Viljor 24%, so Gottne IF are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Gottne IF and 1.7 for Friska Viljor (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gottne IF are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.33 for Friska Viljor. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.6%. This match finished 1-1.

Gottne IF vs Friska Viljor Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

More Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland Predictions