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IFK Ostersund vs Gottne IF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - 9 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 11:00

IFK Ostersund

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 3

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Gottne IF

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 84.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.0% — a clear edge.

+22.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.2%0-10.7%0-20.9%0-30.8%0-4+1.0%1 1-00.8%1-12.2%1-23.0%1-32.6%1-4+3.4%2 2-01.4%2-13.6%2-24.9%2-34.4%2-4+5.7%3 3-01.5%3-14.0%3-25.4%3-34.9%3-4+6.3%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-17.7%4+-210.4%4+-39.3%4+-4+12.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.6% 57.8% 1.73 -14.2%

Draw 20.3% 26.3% 3.80 -13.7%

Away win 30.1% 26.0% 3.85 +15.9%

Over 2.5 80.0% 72.5% 1.38 +10.4%

Over 3.5 60.8% 51.8% 1.93 +17.3%

BTTS 65.9% 73.5% 1.36 -10.4%

Home O1.5 84.4% 69.0% 1.45 +22.4%

Away O1.5 74.9% 46.5% 2.15 +61.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -30.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob65.9%

H 50% / xG 3.3-2.7 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–2 5.4%

#2 2–2 4.9%

#3 3–3 4.9%

#4 4–2 4.5%

#5 2–3 4.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

IFK Ostersund3.3

Gottne IF2.7

COMBINED 6.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.0% · O3.5 PROB 60.8%

Form & verdict PPG

IFK OSTERSUND · PPG 2.00

GOTTNE IF · PPG 2.00

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home EXCELLENT (2.00), Away EXCELLENT (2.00)

Win probability 1X2

IFK Ostersund (H) 49.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -14.2%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -13.7%

Gottne IF (A) 30.1%

ODDS 3.85 · IMPLIED 26.0% EV +15.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

IFK Ostersund face Gottne IF in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives IFK Ostersund a 50% chance, the draw 20% and Gottne IF 30%, so IFK Ostersund are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for IFK Ostersund and 2.7 for Gottne IF (6.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-2. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, IFK Ostersund are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Gottne IF. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +61.0%. This match finished 1-3.

IFK Ostersund vs Gottne IF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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