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Taftea vs Umea FC Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Norrland - 11 ·Monday, June 8, 2026, 17:00

Taftea

PPG 2.25 · HOME

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Umea FC

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 5.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 78.1% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.6%0-10.8%0-20.6%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-02.3%1-13.1%1-22.1%1-30.9%1-4+0.4%2 2-04.2%2-15.8%2-23.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.3%3-17.2%3-24.9%3-32.2%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-013.2%4+-118.0%4+-212.3%4+-35.6%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.8% 78.1% 1.28 -17.1%

Draw 18.2% 18.5% 5.40 -1.0%

Away win 17.0% 12.9% 7.75 +19.1%

Over 2.5 78.1% 80.0% 1.25 -2.4%

Over 3.5 54.4% 60.6% 1.65 -10.2%

BTTS 63.6% 70.4% 1.42 -9.7%

Home O1.5 77.3% 84.7% 1.18 -8.8%

Away O1.5 32.0% 35.7% 2.80 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 64%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -30.8%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)3.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.6%

H 65% / xG 3.8-1.4 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 7.2%

#2 4–1 6.8%

#3 2–1 5.8%

#4 3–0✓ 5.3%

#5 5–1 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Taftea3.8

Umea FC1.4

COMBINED 5.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 78.1% · O3.5 PROB 54.4%

Form & verdict PPG

TAFTEA · PPG 2.25

UMEA FC · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.25) vs P(Home)=64.8%

Win probability 1X2

Taftea (H) 64.8%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -17.1%

Draw 18.2%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV -1.0%

Umea FC (A) 17.0%

ODDS 7.75 · IMPLIED 12.9% EV +19.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Taftea face Umea FC in Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland on Monday, June 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Taftea a 65% chance, the draw 18% and Umea FC 17%, so Taftea are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.8 for Taftea and 1.4 for Umea FC (5.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Taftea are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.25 for Umea FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +19.1%. This match finished 3-0.

Taftea vs Umea FC Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norrland

Match Preview & Prediction

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