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Phoenix Rising vs Louisville City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Thursday, June 11, 2026, 02:30

Phoenix Rising

PPG 1.80 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Louisville City

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.2%0-24.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.4%1-111.7%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.5%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-15.2%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.2% 34.5% 2.90 +42.7%

Draw 24.3% 28.6% 3.50 -9.0%

Away win 26.5% 47.6% 2.10 -26.6%

Over 2.5 54.4% 58.8% 1.70 -7.5%

Over 3.5 34.7% 36.4% 2.75 -4.6%

BTTS 55.7% 63.7% 1.57 -12.6%

Home O1.5 54.8% 42.6% 2.35 +28.8%

Away O1.5 32.8% 51.8% 1.93 -36.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.7%

H 49% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 8.4%

#5 0–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Phoenix Rising1.6

Louisville City1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.4% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PHOENIX RISING · PPG 1.80

LOUISVILLE CITY · PPG 1.33

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.80) > Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

Phoenix Rising (H) 49.2%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +42.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.0%

Louisville City (A) 26.5%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -26.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Phoenix Rising face Louisville City in USA - USL Championship on Thursday, June 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Phoenix Rising a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Louisville City 27%, so Phoenix Rising are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Phoenix Rising and 1.1 for Louisville City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Phoenix Rising are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.33 for Louisville City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +51.0%. This match finished 0-2.

Phoenix Rising vs Louisville City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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