Phoenix Rising vs Louisville City Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

Phoenix Rising face Louisville City in USA - USL Championship on Thursday, June 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Phoenix Rising a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Louisville City 27%, so Phoenix Rising are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Phoenix Rising and 1.1 for Louisville City (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Phoenix Rising are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.33 for Louisville City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +51.0%.