Today / USA - USL Championship / Monterey Bay vs Sporting JAX

Monterey Bay vs Sporting JAX Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Thursday, June 11, 2026, 02:00

Monterey Bay

PPG 1.17 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sporting JAX

PPG 0.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.2%0-17.3%0-23.7%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.6%1-111.8%1-26.0%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.5%2-19.6%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.1%3-15.2%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.0%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.3% 59.5% 1.68 -13.8%

Draw 24.9% 26.3% 3.80 -3.2%

Away win 23.9% 23.8% 4.20 +0.2%

Over 2.5 55.6% 61.7% 1.62 -9.9%

Over 3.5 36.6% 40.0% 2.50 -8.5%

BTTS 55.7% 63.7% 1.57 -12.6%

Home O1.5 54.8% 62.5% 1.60 -12.3%

Away O1.5 31.4% 35.7% 2.80 -12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 38%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.7%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 56% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 11.6%

#3 2–1✓ 9.6%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monterey Bay1.6

Sporting JAX1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 55.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTEREY BAY · PPG 1.17

SPORTING JAX · PPG 0.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.17) vs P(Home)=51.3%

Win probability 1X2

Monterey Bay (H) 51.3%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -13.8%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.2%

Sporting JAX (A) 23.9%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monterey Bay face Sporting JAX in USA - USL Championship on Thursday, June 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monterey Bay a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Sporting JAX 24%, so Monterey Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Monterey Bay and 1.0 for Sporting JAX (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monterey Bay are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.17 for Sporting JAX. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Monterey Bay vs Sporting JAX Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions