Monterey Bay vs Sporting JAX Prediction— USA - USL Championship

USA - USL Championship Group Stage Cardinale Stadium Thursday, June 11, 2026 02:00

Monterey Bay PPG 1.17

VS PENDING

Sporting JAX PPG 0.17

Away· +0.2% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Monterey Bay face Sporting JAX in USA - USL Championship on Thursday, June 11, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monterey Bay a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Sporting JAX 24%, so Monterey Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Monterey Bay and 1.0 for Sporting JAX (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monterey Bay are averaging 1.17 points per game versus 0.17 for Sporting JAX. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +0.2%.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 51.3%

Odds: 1.68 EV: -13.8%

Draw 24.9%

Odds: 3.80 EV: -3.2%

Away 23.9%

Odds: 4.20 EV: +0.2%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 55.6% Odds: 1.62 -9.9%

Over 3.5 36.6% Odds: 2.50 -8.5%

BTTS 55.7% Odds: 1.57 -12.6%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1

2nd 1-0

3rd 2-1

4th 2-0

5th 0-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Monterey Bay

1.62

Sporting JAX

1.01

Model SuggestionBTTS -12.6% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans BTTS, but EV is -12.6% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 
Highest raw EV: Away (+0.2%) — probability too low to qualify.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5/Under 50%

BTTS/No 46%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 23.8%

Bet Hit 58% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.17) vs P(Home)=51.3%