Tampa Bay vs Charleston Prediction— USA - USL Championship

USA - USL Championship Group Stage Al Lang Stadium Wednesday, June 10, 2026 23:00

Tampa Bay PPG 2.60

VS PENDING

Charleston PPG 0.60

Home· -0.4% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Tampa Bay face Charleston in USA - USL Championship on Wednesday, June 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tampa Bay a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Charleston 20%, so Tampa Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Tampa Bay and 0.5 for Charleston (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tampa Bay are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.60 for Charleston.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 57.6%

Odds: 1.73 EV: -0.4%

Draw 22.4%

Odds: 3.60 EV: -11.6%

Away 20.0%

Odds: 4.20 EV: -9.6%

Model lean: Home Not tracked as an official bet.

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 48.9% Odds: 1.70 -16.9%

Over 3.5 28.1% Odds: 2.70 -14.5%

BTTS 47.8% Odds: 1.62 -22.6%

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-0

2nd 2-0

3rd 0-0

4th 1-1

5th 3-0

Expected Goals (xG)

Tampa Bay

1.83

Charleston

0.53

Model SuggestionHome -0.4% NO VALUE BET
No value bet: model leans Home, but EV is -0.4% at these odds — not a recommended bet. 

League Track Record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5/Under 50%

BTTS/No 46%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 23.8%

Bet Hit 58% (12 bets)

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=57.6%