Today / USA - USL Championship / Tampa Bay vs Charleston

Tampa Bay vs Charleston Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Wednesday, June 10, 2026, 23:00

Tampa Bay

PPG 2.60 · HOME

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Charleston

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-15.0%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-017.3%1-19.2%1-22.4%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-015.8%2-18.4%2-22.2%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.6%3-15.1%3-21.4%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.6%4+-13.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.6% 57.8% 1.73 -0.4%

Draw 22.4% 27.8% 3.60 -11.6%

Away win 20.0% 23.8% 4.20 -9.6%

Over 2.5 48.9% 58.8% 1.70 -16.9%

Over 3.5 28.1% 37.0% 2.70 -14.5%

BTTS 47.8% 61.7% 1.62 -22.6%

Home O1.5 56.9% 58.8% 1.70 -3.3%

Away O1.5 18.0% 33.9% 2.95 -28.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 86 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -4.1%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.8%

H 58% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.3%

#2 2–0 15.8%

#3 0–0 9.5%

#4 1–1 9.2%

#5 3–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tampa Bay1.8

Charleston0.5

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.9% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

TAMPA BAY · PPG 2.60

CHARLESTON · PPG 0.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=57.6%

Win probability 1X2

Tampa Bay (H) 57.6%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -0.4%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.6%

Charleston (A) 20.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -9.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tampa Bay face Charleston in USA - USL Championship on Wednesday, June 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tampa Bay a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Charleston 20%, so Tampa Bay are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Tampa Bay and 0.5 for Charleston (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tampa Bay are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 0.60 for Charleston. This match finished 2-2.

Tampa Bay vs Charleston Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions