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Varberg BoIS vs Norrby Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Regular Season - 11 ·Wednesday, June 10, 2026, 17:00

Varberg BoIS

PPG 2.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Norrby

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 64.0% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6% — a clear edge.

+17.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-14.5%0-22.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-09.1%1-19.4%1-24.9%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.8%3-17.0%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-05.8%4+-16.0%4+-23.1%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.5% 58.8% 1.70 -2.3%

Draw 22.4% 26.3% 3.80 -8.9%

Away win 20.0% 21.7% 4.60 -4.8%

Over 2.5 64.0% 54.6% 1.83 +17.1%

Over 3.5 39.8% 32.3% 3.10 +23.4%

BTTS 57.8% 57.8% 1.73 -0.0%

Home O1.5 61.0% 57.8% 1.73 +5.5%

Away O1.5 31.7% 29.9% 3.35 +6.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 35%

ROI -3.6%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.8%

H 57% / xG 2.1-1.0 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0✓ 9.6%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 3–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Varberg BoIS2.1

Norrby1.0

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.0% · O3.5 PROB 39.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VARBERG BOIS · PPG 2.00

NORRBY · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

80%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs P(Home)=57.5%

Win probability 1X2

Varberg BoIS (H) 57.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -2.3%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.9%

Norrby (A) 20.0%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -4.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Varberg BoIS face Norrby in Sweden - Superettan on Wednesday, June 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Varberg BoIS a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Norrby 20%, so Varberg BoIS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Varberg BoIS and 1.0 for Norrby (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Varberg BoIS are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 0.83 for Norrby. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +23.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Varberg BoIS vs Norrby Prediction— Sweden - Superettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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