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BFA vs Be1 NFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Regular Season - 17 ·Sunday, July 26, 2026, 12:00

BFA

PPG 1.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Be1 NFA

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 68.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-110.6%0-28.1%0-34.1%0-4+2.2%1 1-07.9%1-112.1%1-29.2%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.5%2-16.9%2-25.3%2-32.7%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.7%3-12.6%3-22.0%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 32.3% 3.10 +15.6%

Draw 26.7% 27.0% 3.70 -0.7%

Away win 36.0% 52.6% 1.90 -31.6%

Over 2.5 50.0% 62.5% 1.60 -20.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 44.4% 2.25 -21.3%

BTTS 52.3% 68.0% 1.47 -23.1%

Home O1.5 35.0% 43.9% 2.28 -20.2%

Away O1.5 49.0% 61.3% 1.63 -20.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -27.9%

Bet Hit 49%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.3%

A 36% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–2 9.2%

#3 0–1 10.6%

#4 0–0 6.9%

#5 0–2 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

BFA1.1

Be1 NFA1.5

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BFA · PPG 1.62

BE1 NFA · PPG 1.89

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

BFA (H) 37.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +15.6%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -0.7%

Be1 NFA (A) 36.0%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -31.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

BFA face Be1 NFA in Lithuania - 1 Lyga on Sunday, July 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives BFA a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Be1 NFA 36%, so BFA are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for BFA and 1.5 for Be1 NFA (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, BFA are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 1.89 for Be1 NFA.

BFA vs Be1 NFA Prediction— Lithuania - 1 Lyga

Match Preview & Prediction

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