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Marconi S. vs Wollongong W. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 05:00

Marconi S.

PPG 2.60 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Wollongong W.

PPG 1.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-17.3%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.2%1-111.4%1-24.0%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.7%2-18.9%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.6%3-14.6%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-12.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 66.7% 1.50 -20.6%

Draw 26.9% 25.6% 3.90 +2.9%

Away win 20.3% 17.4% 5.75 +10.0%

Over 2.5 46.8% 57.8% 1.73 -19.0%

Over 3.5 28.0% 35.7% 2.80 -13.0%

BTTS 48.0% 56.5% 1.77 -15.0%

Home O1.5 51.7% 63.7% 1.57 -18.8%

Away O1.5 27.9% 26.7% 3.75 +2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 47% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 16.2%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 2–0 12.7%

#4 0–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marconi S.1.6

Wollongong W.0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.8% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MARCONI S. · PPG 2.60

WOLLONGONG W. · PPG 1.70

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value | B...

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.60) vs P(Home)=52.9%

Win probability 1X2

Marconi S. (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -20.6%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +2.9%

Wollongong W. (A) 20.3%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +10.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marconi S. face Wollongong W. in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marconi S. a 53% chance, the draw 27% and Wollongong W. 20%, so Marconi S. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Marconi S. and 0.7 for Wollongong W. (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marconi S. are averaging 2.60 points per game versus 1.70 for Wollongong W.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Marconi S. vs Wollongong W. Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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