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Blacktown City vs Rockdale Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 18 ·Sunday, June 7, 2026, 05:00

Blacktown City

PPG 0.88 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Rockdale

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.7%0-26.1%0-33.3%0-4+1.8%1 1-07.0%1-111.1%1-28.8%1-34.7%1-4+2.6%2 2-05.0%2-17.9%2-26.3%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-02.4%3-13.8%3-23.0%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.6% 33.3% 3.00 +18.8%

Draw 24.8% 28.2% 3.55 -7.2%

Away win 35.6% 48.8% 2.05 -27.0%

Over 2.5 60.7% 65.4% 1.53 -7.1%

Over 3.5 36.6% 43.5% 2.30 -15.8%

BTTS 61.4% 69.4% 1.44 -11.6%

Home O1.5 46.9% 46.5% 2.15 +0.8%

Away O1.5 44.6% 57.8% 1.73 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.4%

A 36% / xG 1.4-1.6 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2✓ 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–0 4.8%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blacktown City1.4

Rockdale1.6

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

BLACKTOWN CITY · PPG 0.88

ROCKDALE · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: POOR (0.88) vs Away AVERAGE (1.38)

Win probability 1X2

Blacktown City (H) 39.6%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +18.8%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -7.2%

Rockdale (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blacktown City face Rockdale in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Sunday, June 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blacktown City a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Rockdale 36%, so Blacktown City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Blacktown City and 1.6 for Rockdale (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blacktown City are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.38 for Rockdale. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +18.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Blacktown City vs Rockdale Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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