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Falu BS vs Korsnas IF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand - 11 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 14:00

Falu BS

PPG 2.20 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Korsnas IF

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 62.0% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-14.3%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-014.6%1-18.7%1-22.6%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.9%2-18.9%2-22.7%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.1%3-16.1%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-14.9%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 69.4% 1.44 -10.7%

Draw 20.9% 23.1% 4.33 -5.7%

Away win 17.1% 17.2% 5.80 -0.5%

Over 2.5 52.6% 71.4% 1.40 -26.4%

Over 3.5 30.7% 51.3% 1.95 -40.1%

BTTS 48.0% 67.6% 1.48 -29.0%

Home O1.5 57.8% 74.1% 1.35 -22.0%

Away O1.5 19.3% 35.1% 2.85 -27.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -22.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob48.0%

H 62% / xG 2.0-0.6 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.9%

#2 1–0 14.6%

#3 3–0 10.1%

#4 1–1 8.7%

#5 2–1✓ 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Falu BS2.0

Korsnas IF0.6

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.6% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FALU BS · PPG 2.20

KORSNAS IF · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.20) vs P(Home)=62.0%

Win probability 1X2

Falu BS (H) 62.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -10.7%

Draw 20.9%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -5.7%

Korsnas IF (A) 17.1%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV -0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Falu BS face Korsnas IF in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Falu BS a 62% chance, the draw 21% and Korsnas IF 17%, so Falu BS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Falu BS and 0.6 for Korsnas IF (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Falu BS are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.75 for Korsnas IF. This match finished 2-1.

Falu BS vs Korsnas IF Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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