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Viggbyholms IK vs Falu BS Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand · Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Viggbyholms IK

PPG 0.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWDL

UPCOMING

Falu BS

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.3%0-113.2%0-210.5%0-35.6%0-4+3.2%1 1-07.4%1-111.8%1-29.4%1-35.0%1-4+2.9%2 2-03.3%2-15.3%2-24.2%2-32.3%2-4+1.3%3 3-01.0%3-11.6%3-21.3%3-30.7%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.3%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.0% 27.8% 3.60 -8.2%

Draw 24.6% 26.3% 3.80 -3.9%

Away win 51.4% 57.8% 1.73 -11.1%

Over 2.5 51.5% 55.6% 1.80 -7.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.3% 3.00 -5.2%

BTTS 52.9% 55.6% 1.80 -4.8%

Home O1.5 30.8% 30.8% 3.25 +0.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 55.6% 1.80 -13.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -9.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob52.9%

A 51% / xG 0.9-1.6 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 0–1 13.2%

#3 0–2 10.5%

#4 1–2 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Viggbyholms IK0.9

Falu BS1.6

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

VIGGBYHOLMS IK · PPG 0.56

FALU BS · PPG 1.56

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

DANGER

xG gap -0.70 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Viggbyholms IK (H) 24.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -8.2%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.9%

Falu BS (A) 51.4%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Viggbyholms IK face Falu BS in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Viggbyholms IK a 24% chance, the draw 25% and Falu BS 51%, so Falu BS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Viggbyholms IK and 1.6 for Falu BS (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Viggbyholms IK are averaging 0.56 points per game versus 1.56 for Falu BS. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +0.1%.

Viggbyholms IK vs Falu BS Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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