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Franke vs Gute Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand · Matchday 20 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:30

Franke

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

UPCOMING

Gute

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 68% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.4%0-23.7%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-07.3%1-110.0%1-26.9%1-33.2%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.8%2-19.4%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.2%3-15.8%3-24.0%3-31.8%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.2%4+-22.9%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 42.6% 2.35 +2.2%

Draw 22.2% 27.0% 3.70 -10.7%

Away win 34.3% 42.0% 2.38 -18.4%

Over 2.5 63.7% 69.4% 1.44 -8.3%

Over 3.5 40.5% 47.6% 2.10 -14.9%

BTTS 61.5% 69.4% 1.44 -11.4%

Home O1.5 55.8% 55.6% 1.80 +0.4%

Away O1.5 42.2% 54.6% 1.83 -22.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 63 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 52%

ROI -9.2%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.5%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 1–2 6.9%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Franke1.9

Gute1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FRANKE · PPG 1.78

GUTE · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

68%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Franke (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV +2.2%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -10.7%

Gute (A) 34.3%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Franke face Gute in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Franke a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Gute 34%, so Franke are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Franke and 1.4 for Gute (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Franke are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.20 for Gute. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.8%.

Franke vs Gute Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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