Today / Groene Ster vs Noordwijk

Groene Ster vs Noordwijk Prediction

Group B - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:00

Groene Ster

PPG 1.43 · HOME

4 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Noordwijk

PPG 0.87 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.43) > Away POOR (0.87)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-19.3%0-27.7%0-34.2%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.9%1-111.4%1-29.4%1-35.2%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.2%2-17.0%2-25.8%2-33.2%2-4+1.9%3 3-01.7%3-12.9%3-22.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.1%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.4% — — —

Draw 24.2% — — —

Away win 47.4% — — —

Over 2.5 54.9% — — —

Over 3.5 32.6% — — —

BTTS 57.1% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob57.1%

A 47% / xG 1.2-1.7 / O2.5 55% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 9.3%

#4 0–2 7.7%

#5 2–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Groene Ster1.2

Noordwijk1.7

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.6%

Form & verdict PPG

GROENE STER · PPG 1.43

NOORDWIJK · PPG 0.87

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.43) > Away POOR (0.87)

Win probability 1X2

Groene Ster (H) 28.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Noordwijk (A) 47.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Groene Ster face Noordwijk on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Groene Ster a 28% chance, the draw 24% and Noordwijk 47%, so Noordwijk are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Groene Ster and 1.7 for Noordwijk (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Groene Ster are averaging 1.43 points per game versus 0.87 for Noordwijk. This match finished 4-2.

Groene Ster vs Noordwijk Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

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