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Sunnersta vs Gute Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Norra Svealand - 11 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 12:30

Sunnersta

PPG 2.25 · HOME

5 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Gute

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 60.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-14.5%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-010.0%1-19.4%1-24.4%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.5%2-19.9%2-24.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.4%3-17.0%3-23.3%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-16.0%4+-22.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% 63.7% 1.57 -10.5%

Draw 22.5% 24.4% 4.10 -4.7%

Away win 20.5% 22.2% 4.50 -4.7%

Over 2.5 59.6% 71.4% 1.40 -16.6%

Over 3.5 36.6% 50.0% 2.00 -26.8%

BTTS 55.2% 69.4% 1.44 -20.5%

Home O1.5 60.4% 70.4% 1.42 -14.2%

Away O1.5 27.9% 40.0% 2.50 -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 28 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -22.7%

Bet Hit 52%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-0

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.2%

H 57% / xG 2.1-0.9 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.4%

#2 2–0 10.5%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sunnersta2.1

Gute0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SUNNERSTA · PPG 2.25

GUTE · PPG 1.60

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.25) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Sunnersta (H) 57.0%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -10.5%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -4.7%

Gute (A) 20.5%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sunnersta face Gute in Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sunnersta a 57% chance, the draw 23% and Gute 21%, so Sunnersta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Sunnersta and 0.9 for Gute (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sunnersta are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.60 for Gute. This match finished 5-0.

Sunnersta vs Gute Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Norra Svealand

Match Preview & Prediction

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