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Petrovac vs Sutjeska Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:00

Petrovac

PPG 1.86 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Sutjeska

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 54.8% vs bookmaker-implied 35.7% — a clear edge.

+53.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.3%0-16.9%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.2%1-111.5%1-25.4%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.3%2-19.7%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.7%3-15.4%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.3%4+-21.6%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.8% 35.7% 2.80 +53.4%

Draw 24.2% 32.3% 3.10 -25.0%

Away win 21.0% 43.5% 2.30 -51.7%

Over 2.5 48.6% 42.0% 2.38 +15.7%

Over 3.5 26.8% — — —

BTTS 49.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 30%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.6%

H 55% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 12.2%

#2 1–1 11.5%

#3 2–0 10.3%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Petrovac1.7

Sutjeska0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.6% · O3.5 PROB 26.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PETROVAC · PPG 1.86

SUTJESKA · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.86) > Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Petrovac (H) 54.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +53.4%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -25.0%

Sutjeska (A) 21.0%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -51.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Petrovac face Sutjeska in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Petrovac a 55% chance, the draw 24% and Sutjeska 21%, so Petrovac are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Petrovac and 0.9 for Sutjeska (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Petrovac are averaging 1.86 points per game versus 1.50 for Sutjeska. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +53.4%. This match finished 0-1.

Petrovac vs Sutjeska Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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