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Nedlands vs Joondalup City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 07:00

Nedlands

PPG 3.00 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Joondalup City

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 68.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-13.2%0-21.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-06.4%1-17.7%1-24.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.8%2-19.4%2-25.6%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.4%3-17.6%3-24.6%3-31.8%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-18.3%4+-25.0%4+-32.0%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 60.6% 1.65 -7.4%

Draw 20.7% 27.8% 3.60 -15.3%

Away win 23.2% 25.0% 4.00 -4.3%

Over 2.5 65.4% 69.4% 1.44 -5.8%

Over 3.5 43.0% 48.8% 2.05 -11.8%

BTTS 61.4% 69.4% 1.44 -11.6%

Home O1.5 68.8% 68.5% 1.46 +0.4%

Away O1.5 32.0% 39.8% 2.51 -19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.4%

H 56% / xG 2.4-1.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 9.4%

#2 1–1✓ 7.7%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 3–1 7.6%

#5 3–0 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nedlands2.4

Joondalup City1.2

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 43.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NEDLANDS · PPG 3.00

JOONDALUP CITY · PPG 2.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=56.1%

Win probability 1X2

Nedlands (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -7.4%

Draw 20.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -15.3%

Joondalup City (A) 23.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nedlands face Joondalup City in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nedlands a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Joondalup City 23%, so Nedlands are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Nedlands and 1.2 for Joondalup City (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nedlands are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.14 for Joondalup City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 1-1.

Nedlands vs Joondalup City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Western Australia State League 1 Predictions