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Floreat Athena vs Cockburn City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 07:00

Floreat Athena

PPG 3.00 · HOME

7 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Cockburn City

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 74.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.8%0-21.0%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.7%1-15.3%1-23.0%1-31.2%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.1%2-18.1%2-24.6%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-07.2%3-18.2%3-24.7%3-31.8%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-011.5%4+-113.1%4+-27.5%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.2% 69.4% 1.44 -6.1%

Draw 16.2% 25.0% 4.00 -21.1%

Away win 18.6% 20.0% 5.00 -4.2%

Over 2.5 67.7% 69.4% 1.44 -2.5%

Over 3.5 47.4% 50.8% 1.97 -6.6%

BTTS 63.3% 66.7% 1.50 -5.1%

Home O1.5 78.3% 74.1% 1.35 +5.7%

Away O1.5 35.4% 35.2% 2.84 +0.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 25.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 7-1

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob63.3%

H 65% / xG 3.0-1.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 8.1%

#3 3–0 7.2%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 4–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Floreat Athena3.0

Cockburn City1.1

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.7% · O3.5 PROB 47.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FLOREAT ATHENA · PPG 3.00

COCKBURN CITY · PPG 1.22

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.89 for Home, form 3.00 vs 1.22 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Floreat Athena (H) 65.2%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -6.1%

Draw 16.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -21.1%

Cockburn City (A) 18.6%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Floreat Athena face Cockburn City in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Floreat Athena a 65% chance, the draw 16% and Cockburn City 19%, so Floreat Athena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Floreat Athena and 1.1 for Cockburn City (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Floreat Athena are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.22 for Cockburn City. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +5.7%. This match finished 7-1.

Floreat Athena vs Cockburn City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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