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Subiaco vs Cockburn City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 07:00

Subiaco

PPG 0.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Cockburn City

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLDL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 71.8% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.3%0-22.3%0-31.6%0-4+1.3%1 1-02.7%1-15.6%1-25.7%1-33.9%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.4%2-16.9%2-27.0%2-34.8%2-4+3.9%3 3-02.7%3-15.6%3-25.7%3-33.9%3-4+3.2%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-16.2%4+-26.3%4+-34.3%4+-4+3.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.4% 54.1% 1.85 -8.6%

Draw 21.4% 28.6% 3.50 -15.1%

Away win 29.2% 30.3% 3.30 -2.2%

Over 2.5 71.8% 73.5% 1.36 -2.4%

Over 3.5 51.6% 53.8% 1.86 -4.0%

BTTS 69.1% 74.1% 1.35 -6.7%

Home O1.5 65.1% 67.6% 1.48 -3.6%

Away O1.5 55.2% 49.0% 2.04 +12.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.0%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob69.1%

H 49% / xG 2.5-2.0 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 69%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.0%

#2 2–1 6.9%

#3 1–1 5.6%

#4 3–2 5.7%

#5 3–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Subiaco2.5

Cockburn City2.0

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 51.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SUBIACO · PPG 0.70

COCKBURN CITY · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Subiaco (H) 49.4%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -8.6%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -15.1%

Cockburn City (A) 29.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Subiaco face Cockburn City in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Subiaco a 49% chance, the draw 21% and Cockburn City 29%, so Subiaco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Subiaco and 2.0 for Cockburn City (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 69% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Subiaco are averaging 0.70 points per game versus 1.10 for Cockburn City. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +36.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Subiaco vs Cockburn City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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