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Inglewood United vs Joondalup City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 07:00

Inglewood United

PPG 1.70 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Joondalup City

PPG 1.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-110.6%0-26.3%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.0%1-113.0%1-27.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.8%2-18.0%2-24.7%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.8%3-13.3%3-21.9%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.3%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 29.4% 3.40 +47.6%

Draw 27.3% 25.6% 3.90 +3.9%

Away win 29.3% 55.6% 1.80 -28.4%

Over 2.5 50.3% 61.7% 1.62 -18.5%

Over 3.5 29.6% 40.7% 2.46 -16.3%

BTTS 53.8% 64.9% 1.54 -17.2%

Home O1.5 34.0% 39.4% 2.54 -13.6%

Away O1.5 35.4% 58.1% 1.72 -39.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 25.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob53.8%

H 43% / xG 1.2-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.0%

#2 0–0 9.0%

#3 1–0 11.0%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Inglewood United1.2

Joondalup City1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.3% · O3.5 PROB 29.6%

Form & verdict PPG

INGLEWOOD UNITED · PPG 1.70

JOONDALUP CITY · PPG 1.90

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.05, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Inglewood United (H) 43.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV +47.6%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +3.9%

Joondalup City (A) 29.3%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -28.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Inglewood United face Joondalup City in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Inglewood United a 43% chance, the draw 27% and Joondalup City 29%, so Inglewood United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Inglewood United and 1.2 for Joondalup City (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Inglewood United are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.90 for Joondalup City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Inglewood United vs Joondalup City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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