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Murdoch Melville vs UWA Nedlands Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Matchday 20 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 07:00

Murdoch Melville

PPG 1.20 · HOME

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

UWA Nedlands

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-14.5%0-25.0%0-33.7%0-4+3.5%1 1-03.4%1-17.5%1-28.4%1-36.2%1-4+5.8%2 2-02.8%2-16.3%2-27.0%2-35.2%2-4+4.9%3 3-01.6%3-13.5%3-23.9%3-32.9%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-12.2%4+-22.4%4+-31.8%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 20.0% 5.00 +75.0%

Draw 21.6% 25.0% 4.00 -8.2%

Away win 43.4% 69.4% 1.44 -37.5%

Over 2.5 67.3% 71.4% 1.40 -5.8%

Over 3.5 46.9% 51.5% 1.94 -9.0%

BTTS 65.7% 69.4% 1.44 -5.4%

Home O1.5 49.2% 35.7% 2.80 +37.8%

Away O1.5 65.0% 74.1% 1.35 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 25.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob65.7%

A 43% / xG 1.7-2.2 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 1–2 8.4%

#3 2–2 7.0%

#4 2–1 6.3%

#5 1–3 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Murdoch Melville1.7

UWA Nedlands2.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 46.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MURDOCH MELVILLE · PPG 1.20

UWA NEDLANDS · PPG 1.44

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.55 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Murdoch Melville (H) 35.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +75.0%

Draw 21.6%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -8.2%

UWA Nedlands (A) 43.4%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -37.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Murdoch Melville face UWA Nedlands in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Murdoch Melville a 35% chance, the draw 22% and UWA Nedlands 43%, so UWA Nedlands are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Murdoch Melville and 2.2 for UWA Nedlands (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Murdoch Melville are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.44 for UWA Nedlands. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +59.9%. This match finished 0-3.

Murdoch Melville vs UWA Nedlands Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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