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Gwelup Croatia vs Floreat Athena Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 07:00

Gwelup Croatia

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLD

4 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Floreat Athena

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-16.7%0-27.2%0-35.2%0-4+4.6%1 1-04.1%1-18.8%1-29.5%1-36.8%1-4+6.0%2 2-02.7%2-15.8%2-26.3%2-34.5%2-4+4.0%3 3-01.2%3-12.6%3-22.8%3-32.0%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.3% 17.2% 5.80 +21.1%

Draw 21.2% 25.0% 4.00 -9.1%

Away win 55.5% 71.4% 1.40 -22.3%

Over 2.5 66.0% 73.5% 1.36 -10.2%

Over 3.5 43.5% 52.1% 1.92 -16.5%

BTTS 63.1% 69.4% 1.44 -9.1%

Home O1.5 37.8% 34.1% 2.93 +10.8%

Away O1.5 57.7% 75.2% 1.33 -23.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.0%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 60%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob63.1%

A 56% / xG 1.3-2.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.5%

#2 1–1 8.8%

#3 0–2 7.2%

#4 1–3 6.8%

#5 2–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gwelup Croatia1.3

Floreat Athena2.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.0% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

GWELUP CROATIA · PPG 1.40

FLOREAT ATHENA · PPG 1.33

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.83 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Gwelup Croatia (H) 23.3%

ODDS 5.80 · IMPLIED 17.2% EV +21.1%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -9.1%

Floreat Athena (A) 55.5%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -22.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gwelup Croatia face Floreat Athena in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gwelup Croatia a 23% chance, the draw 21% and Floreat Athena 56%, so Floreat Athena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gwelup Croatia and 2.2 for Floreat Athena (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gwelup Croatia are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.33 for Floreat Athena. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +52.3%. This match finished 4-4.

Gwelup Croatia vs Floreat Athena Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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