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Mandurah City vs Murdoch Melville Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 07:00

Mandurah City

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Murdoch Melville

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.6%0-22.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-04.3%1-16.7%1-25.2%1-32.7%1-4+1.5%2 2-05.4%2-18.4%2-26.5%2-33.4%2-4+1.9%3 3-04.5%3-17.1%3-25.5%3-32.8%3-4+1.6%4+ 4+-05.2%4+-18.1%4+-26.3%4+-33.3%4+-4+1.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.2% 61.7% 1.62 -17.1%

Draw 21.4% 23.8% 4.20 -6.1%

Away win 27.4% 27.0% 3.70 +0.8%

Over 2.5 67.3% 71.4% 1.40 -5.8%

Over 3.5 47.1% 57.8% 1.73 -18.5%

BTTS 63.2% 74.1% 1.35 -14.7%

Home O1.5 65.1% 73.5% 1.36 -11.5%

Away O1.5 48.5% 48.3% 2.07 +0.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.0%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.2%

H 51% / xG 2.5-1.6 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.7%

#2 2–1 8.4%

#3 2–2 6.5%

#4 1–2 5.2%

#5 3–1✓ 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mandurah City2.5

Murdoch Melville1.6

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MANDURAH CITY · PPG 1.50

MURDOCH MELVILLE · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mandurah City (H) 51.2%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -17.1%

Draw 21.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.1%

Murdoch Melville (A) 27.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mandurah City face Murdoch Melville in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mandurah City a 51% chance, the draw 21% and Murdoch Melville 27%, so Mandurah City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Mandurah City and 1.6 for Murdoch Melville (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mandurah City are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Murdoch Melville. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +10.0%. This match finished 3-1.

Mandurah City vs Murdoch Melville Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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