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UWA Nedlands vs Subiaco Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 15, 2026, 07:00

UWA Nedlands

PPG 2.80 · HOME

UPCOMING

Subiaco

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 80.3% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-11.5%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.1%1 1-04.8%1-14.8%1-22.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-07.8%2-17.7%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.3%3-18.2%3-24.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-014.9%4+-114.7%4+-27.2%4+-32.4%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 68.6% 82.0% 1.22 -16.3%

Draw 16.6% 16.7% 6.00 -0.2%

Away win 14.8% 13.3% 7.50 +6.6%

Over 2.5 67.4% 75.2% 1.33 -10.4%

Over 3.5 47.2% 54.3% 1.84 -13.2%

BTTS 60.3% 57.8% 1.73 +4.3%

Home O1.5 80.3% 83.3% 1.20 -3.6%

Away O1.5 27.3% 23.5% 4.25 +9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 42 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 45%

ROI 25.5%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob60.3%

H 69% / xG 3.2-1.0 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 8.3%

#2 3–1 8.2%

#3 2–0 7.8%

#4 2–1 7.7%

#5 4–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

UWA Nedlands3.2

Subiaco1.0

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.4% · O3.5 PROB 47.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UWA NEDLANDS · PPG 2.80

SUBIACO · PPG 0.70

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.22 for Home, form 2.80 vs 0.70 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

UWA Nedlands (H) 68.6%

ODDS 1.22 · IMPLIED 82.0% EV -16.3%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV -0.2%

Subiaco (A) 14.8%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

UWA Nedlands face Subiaco in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 15, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives UWA Nedlands a 69% chance, the draw 17% and Subiaco 15%, so UWA Nedlands are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.2 for UWA Nedlands and 1.0 for Subiaco (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, UWA Nedlands are averaging 2.80 points per game versus 0.70 for Subiaco. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +18.3%.

UWA Nedlands vs Subiaco Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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