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Joondalup City vs UWA Nedlands Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 07:00

Joondalup City

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

UWA Nedlands

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.7%0-25.7%0-33.2%0-4+2.0%1 1-06.1%1-110.3%1-28.7%1-34.9%1-4+3.1%2 2-04.7%2-17.9%2-26.7%2-33.8%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.4%3-14.0%3-23.4%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.2%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.5% 31.3% 3.20 +10.4%

Draw 23.4% 27.0% 3.70 -8.1%

Away win 42.1% 54.1% 1.85 -22.1%

Over 2.5 59.9% 65.4% 1.53 -8.3%

Over 3.5 36.9% 48.8% 2.05 -24.4%

BTTS 61.3% 71.4% 1.40 -14.2%

Home O1.5 41.1% 45.0% 2.22 -8.8%

Away O1.5 48.5% 64.5% 1.55 -24.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 54 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 11.0%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 39%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.3%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–2 5.7%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Joondalup City1.5

UWA Nedlands1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.9%

Form & verdict PPG

JOONDALUP CITY · PPG 1.80

UWA NEDLANDS · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Joondalup City (H) 34.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +10.4%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -8.1%

UWA Nedlands (A) 42.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -22.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Joondalup City face UWA Nedlands in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Joondalup City a 35% chance, the draw 23% and UWA Nedlands 42%, so UWA Nedlands are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Joondalup City and 1.7 for UWA Nedlands (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Joondalup City are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.60 for UWA Nedlands. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Joondalup City vs UWA Nedlands Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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