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Murdoch M. vs Mandurah City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 07:00

Murdoch M.

PPG 1.75 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Mandurah City

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 73.6% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.1%0-12.4%0-22.6%0-31.9%0-4+1.8%1 1-02.5%1-15.5%1-26.1%1-34.5%1-4+4.2%2 2-02.9%2-16.4%2-27.1%2-35.2%2-4+4.8%3 3-02.2%3-15.0%3-25.5%3-34.0%3-4+3.7%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-14.9%4+-25.5%4+-34.0%4+-4+3.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.0% 34.5% 2.90 +13.1%

Draw 20.4% 29.4% 3.40 -18.4%

Away win 40.6% 48.8% 2.05 -16.8%

Over 2.5 73.6% 71.4% 1.40 +3.0%

Over 3.5 54.4% 53.2% 1.88 +2.3%

BTTS 65.7% 75.2% 1.33 -12.6%

Home O1.5 68.8% 53.5% 1.87 +28.7%

Away O1.5 66.3% 63.7% 1.57 +4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob65.7%

H 39% / xG 2.3-2.2 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 66%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–2 7.1%

#2 2–1 6.4%

#3 1–1 5.5%

#4 1–2✓ 6.1%

#5 3–2 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Murdoch M.2.3

Mandurah City2.2

COMBINED 4.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.6% · O3.5 PROB 54.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MURDOCH M. · PPG 1.75

MANDURAH CITY · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.75) > Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Murdoch M. (H) 39.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +13.1%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -18.4%

Mandurah City (A) 40.6%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Murdoch M. face Mandurah City in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Murdoch M. a 39% chance, the draw 20% and Mandurah City 41%, so Mandurah City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Murdoch M. and 2.2 for Mandurah City (4.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-2. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 66% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Murdoch M. are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.20 for Mandurah City. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +45.8%. This match finished 1-2.

Murdoch M. vs Mandurah City Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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