Today / Australia - Western Australia State League 1 / Cockburn City vs Subiaco

Cockburn City vs Subiaco Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 07:00

Cockburn City

PPG 1.14 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Subiaco

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 68.8% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a clear edge.

+34.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.6%0-22.5%0-31.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-03.2%1-16.2%1-26.0%1-33.9%1-4+2.9%2 2-03.8%2-17.3%2-27.1%2-34.6%2-4+3.5%3 3-03.0%3-15.8%3-25.6%3-33.6%3-4+2.7%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-16.0%4+-25.8%4+-33.7%4+-4+2.8%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.1% 40.0% 2.50 +20.3%

Draw 21.0% 30.8% 3.25 -19.1%

Away win 30.9% 43.5% 2.30 -28.9%

Over 2.5 66.8% 66.7% 1.50 +0.2%

Over 3.5 46.8% 45.2% 2.21 +3.4%

BTTS 63.6% 69.4% 1.44 -8.4%

Home O1.5 68.8% 51.3% 1.95 +34.2%

Away O1.5 44.6% 54.1% 1.85 -17.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.6%

H 48% / xG 2.4-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1✓ 7.3%

#2 1–1 6.2%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.0%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cockburn City2.4

Subiaco1.9

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.8% · O3.5 PROB 46.8%

Form & verdict PPG

COCKBURN CITY · PPG 1.14

SUBIACO · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.14) > Away POOR (0.60)

Win probability 1X2

Cockburn City (H) 48.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +20.3%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -19.1%

Subiaco (A) 30.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -28.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cockburn City face Subiaco in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cockburn City a 48% chance, the draw 21% and Subiaco 31%, so Cockburn City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Cockburn City and 1.9 for Subiaco (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cockburn City are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 0.60 for Subiaco. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +52.0%. This match finished 2-1.

Cockburn City vs Subiaco Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Australia - Western Australia State League 1 Predictions