Today / Uerdingen vs Hilden

Uerdingen vs Hilden Prediction

Niederrhein - 28 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:00

Uerdingen

PPG 2.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Hilden

PPG 2.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-15.3%0-25.8%0-34.2%0-4+3.8%1 1-03.7%1-18.1%1-28.9%1-36.5%1-4+5.9%2 2-02.9%2-16.2%2-26.8%2-35.0%2-4+4.5%3 3-01.5%3-13.2%3-23.5%3-32.5%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.7%4+-21.9%4+-31.4%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.0% — — —

Draw 20.5% — — —

Away win 52.5% — — —

Over 2.5 71.8% — — —

Over 3.5 51.0% — — —

BTTS 69.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 64%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.2 BTTS prob69.6%

A 52% / xG 1.5-2.2 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 70%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.9%

#2 1–1 8.1%

#3 2–2 6.8%

#4 1–3 6.5%

#5 2–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uerdingen1.5

Hilden2.2

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 71.8% · O3.5 PROB 51.0%

Form & verdict PPG

UERDINGEN · PPG 2.00

HILDEN · PPG 2.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

Home weakness: EXCELLENT (2.00) vs Away EXCELLENT (2.38)

Win probability 1X2

Uerdingen (H) 27.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hilden (A) 52.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Uerdingen face Hilden on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uerdingen a 27% chance, the draw 21% and Hilden 53%, so Hilden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Uerdingen and 2.2 for Hilden (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 70% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uerdingen are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 2.38 for Hilden. This match finished 1-0.

Uerdingen vs Hilden Prediction

Match Preview & Prediction

More Football Predictions