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SD Raiders vs UNSW Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, June 6, 2026, 07:00

SD Raiders

PPG 1.00 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

UNSW

PPG 0.38 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.4% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-17.4%0-25.7%0-32.9%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.2%1-111.1%1-28.5%1-34.4%1-4+2.4%2 2-05.4%2-18.3%2-26.4%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-02.7%3-14.1%3-23.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.1%4+-21.6%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.0% 42.6% 2.35 -10.7%

Draw 25.5% 27.4% 3.65 -4.2%

Away win 36.5% 40.0% 2.50 -8.8%

Over 2.5 60.7% 60.6% 1.65 +0.1%

Over 3.5 36.6% 37.7% 2.65 -3.0%

BTTS 61.4% 65.4% 1.53 -6.1%

Home O1.5 46.9% 50.0% 2.00 -6.2%

Away O1.5 44.6% 47.6% 2.10 -6.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 47%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.4%

A 36% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.1%

#2 1–2 8.5%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–0 4.8%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SD Raiders1.5

UNSW1.5

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SD RAIDERS · PPG 1.00

UNSW · PPG 0.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.00) > Away POOR (0.38)

Win probability 1X2

SD Raiders (H) 38.0%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -10.7%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -4.2%

UNSW (A) 36.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

SD Raiders face UNSW in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Saturday, June 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SD Raiders a 38% chance, the draw 26% and UNSW 37%, so SD Raiders are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for SD Raiders and 1.5 for UNSW (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SD Raiders are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.38 for UNSW. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +1.9%. This match finished 2-0.

SD Raiders vs UNSW Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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