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Talleres R. E. vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Regular Season - 19 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 23:00

Talleres R. E.

PPG 1.63 · HOME

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Deportivo Merlo

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.5%0-113.4%0-24.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.2%1-112.0%1-23.6%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.1%2-15.4%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-02.7%3-11.6%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 47.6% 2.10 -9.9%

Draw 34.0% 34.7% 2.88 -2.1%

Away win 23.1% 28.2% 3.55 -10.8%

Over 2.5 33.0% 35.1% 2.85 -5.9%

Over 3.5 18.5% 18.2% 5.50 +1.1%

BTTS 44.2% 43.5% 2.30 +1.7%

Home O1.5 33.7% 37.0% 2.70 -9.0%

Away O1.5 19.3% 23.8% 4.20 -11.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 96 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 63%

ROI 21.9%

Bet Hit 58%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob44.2%

H 43% / xG 0.9-0.6 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 22.5%

#2 1–0 20.2%

#3 1–1 12.0%

#4 0–1 13.4%

#5 2–0✓ 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Talleres R. E.0.9

Deportivo Merlo0.6

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.0% · O3.5 PROB 18.5%

Form & verdict PPG

TALLERES R. E. · PPG 1.63

DEPORTIVO MERLO · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home GOOD (1.63), Away GOOD (1.50)

Win probability 1X2

Talleres R. E. (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -9.9%

Draw 34.0%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -2.1%

Deportivo Merlo (A) 23.1%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -10.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Talleres R. E. face Deportivo Merlo in Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Talleres R. E. a 43% chance, the draw 34% and Deportivo Merlo 23%, so Talleres R. E. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Talleres R. E. and 0.6 for Deportivo Merlo (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Talleres R. E. are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.50 for Deportivo Merlo. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +1.7%. This match finished 2-0.

Talleres R. E. vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction— Argentina - Primera B Metropolitana

Match Preview & Prediction

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