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Sparta Prague vs Jablonec Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Matchday 30 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 16:00

Sparta Prague

PPG 2.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Jablonec

PPG 1.79 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDLLW

// Model verdict

Home 64% chance

Model probability 60.0% vs bookmaker-implied 64.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.2%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.2%1-110.2%1-25.0%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-110.0%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.6%3-16.5%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.0%4+-15.0%4+-22.5%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.0% 64.9% 1.54 -7.6%

Draw 21.5% 25.3% 3.95 -15.1%

Away win 18.5% 19.0% 5.25 -2.9%

Over 2.5 56.6% 58.8% 1.70 -3.8%

Over 3.5 34.2% 36.4% 2.75 -5.9%

BTTS 54.0% 58.8% 1.70 -8.2%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 47%

Score Hit 40%

ROI 17.4%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.0%

H 60% / xG 2.0-1.0 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 10.2%

#2 1–1 10.2%

#3 2–0 10.0%

#4 2–1 10.0%

#5 3–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sparta Prague2.0

Jablonec1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.6% · O3.5 PROB 34.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SPARTA PRAGUE · PPG 2.36

JABLONEC · PPG 1.79

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.36) > Away GOOD (1.79)

Win probability 1X2

Sparta Prague (H) 60.0%

ODDS 1.54 · IMPLIED 64.9% EV -7.6%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -15.1%

Jablonec (A) 18.5%

ODDS 5.25 · IMPLIED 19.0% EV -2.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sparta Prague face Jablonec in Czech-Republic - Czech Liga on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sparta Prague a 60% chance, the draw 22% and Jablonec 19%, so Sparta Prague are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Sparta Prague and 1.0 for Jablonec (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sparta Prague are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.79 for Jablonec. This match finished 3-1.

Sparta Prague vs Jablonec Prediction— Czech-Republic - Czech Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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