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Floreat Athena vs Gwelup Croatia Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Regular Season - 11 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 11:00

Floreat Athena

PPG 3.00 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Gwelup Croatia

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 72.4% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.7%0-12.1%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.9%1-16.0%1-23.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.6%2 2-06.9%2-18.5%2-25.3%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.5%3-18.0%3-25.0%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-111.3%4+-27.0%4+-32.9%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.0% 69.4% 1.44 -10.7%

Draw 18.8% 25.0% 4.00 -14.9%

Away win 19.2% 20.0% 5.00 -2.4%

Over 2.5 65.4% 73.5% 1.36 -11.1%

Over 3.5 44.5% 56.8% 1.76 -21.7%

BTTS 61.4% 71.4% 1.40 -14.0%

Home O1.5 72.4% 73.5% 1.36 -1.5%

Away O1.5 32.0% 40.0% 2.50 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 25 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 68%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 44%

ROI 2.1%

Bet Hit 68%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.4%

H 62% / xG 2.8-1.2 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.5%

#2 3–1 8.0%

#3 1–1 6.0%

#4 2–0 6.9%

#5 3–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Floreat Athena2.8

Gwelup Croatia1.2

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.4% · O3.5 PROB 44.5%

Form & verdict PPG

FLOREAT ATHENA · PPG 3.00

GWELUP CROATIA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (3.00) vs P(Home)=62.0%

Win probability 1X2

Floreat Athena (H) 62.0%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -10.7%

Draw 18.8%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -14.9%

Gwelup Croatia (A) 19.2%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -2.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Floreat Athena face Gwelup Croatia in Australia - Western Australia State League 1 on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Floreat Athena a 62% chance, the draw 19% and Gwelup Croatia 19%, so Floreat Athena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for Floreat Athena and 1.2 for Gwelup Croatia (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Floreat Athena are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 2.00 for Gwelup Croatia. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +2.6%. This match finished 4-0.

Floreat Athena vs Gwelup Croatia Prediction— Australia - Western Australia State League 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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