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Logan Lightning vs Capalaba Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Regular Season - 14 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 10:30

Logan Lightning

PPG 1.00 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Capalaba

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 74.3% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.9%0-21.3%0-30.6%0-4+0.3%1 1-04.0%1-15.5%1-23.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.8%2-18.0%2-25.6%2-32.6%2-4+1.2%3 3-05.6%3-17.7%3-25.4%3-32.5%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-08.3%4+-111.5%4+-28.0%4+-33.7%4+-4+1.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.2% 67.6% 1.48 -7.9%

Draw 18.5% 21.7% 4.60 -8.9%

Away win 19.2% 20.8% 4.80 -4.7%

Over 2.5 73.6% 75.2% 1.33 -2.1%

Over 3.5 52.1% 54.1% 1.85 -3.6%

BTTS 63.6% 70.4% 1.42 -9.7%

Home O1.5 74.3% 75.2% 1.33 -1.2%

Away O1.5 32.0% 40.0% 2.50 -20.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 33 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 36%

ROI -0.9%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 66%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.6%

H 62% / xG 2.9-1.4 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.0%

#2 3–1 7.7%

#3 1–1 5.5%

#4 2–0 5.8%

#5 4–1 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Logan Lightning2.9

Capalaba1.4

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 73.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.1%

Form & verdict PPG

LOGAN LIGHTNING · PPG 1.00

CAPALABA · PPG 0.80

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.00), Away POOR (0.80)

Win probability 1X2

Logan Lightning (H) 62.2%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -7.9%

Draw 18.5%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV -8.9%

Capalaba (A) 19.2%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV -4.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Logan Lightning face Capalaba in Australia - Queensland Premier League on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Logan Lightning a 62% chance, the draw 19% and Capalaba 19%, so Logan Lightning are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Logan Lightning and 1.4 for Capalaba (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Logan Lightning are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.80 for Capalaba. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Logan Lightning vs Capalaba Prediction— Australia - Queensland Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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