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Real Oviedo B vs Bergantinos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 32 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 15:30

Real Oviedo B

PPG 1.67 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Bergantinos

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a clear edge.

+22.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-17.0%0-22.4%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.3%1-111.1%1-23.8%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.0%2-18.9%2-23.1%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.0%3-14.8%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-12.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.5% 48.8% 2.05 +22.0%

Draw 24.8% 32.3% 3.10 -23.1%

Away win 15.8% 30.3% 3.30 -47.9%

Over 2.5 40.1% — — —

Over 3.5 19.8% — — —

BTTS 39.6% 54.1% 1.85 -26.7%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob39.6%

H 60% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.3%

#2 2–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 11.1%

#4 0–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Real Oviedo B1.6

Bergantinos0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.1% · O3.5 PROB 19.8%

Form & verdict PPG

REAL OVIEDO B · PPG 1.67

BERGANTINOS · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.67) > Away AVERAGE (1.27)

Win probability 1X2

Real Oviedo B (H) 59.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +22.0%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -23.1%

Bergantinos (A) 15.8%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -47.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Real Oviedo B face Bergantinos in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Real Oviedo B a 60% chance, the draw 25% and Bergantinos 16%, so Real Oviedo B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Real Oviedo B and 0.7 for Bergantinos (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 40% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Real Oviedo B are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.27 for Bergantinos. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +22.0%. This match finished 1-2.

Real Oviedo B vs Bergantinos Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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