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Sydney FC B vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Regular Season - 18 ·Friday, June 5, 2026, 09:30

Sydney FC B

PPG 1.40 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

NWS Spirit

PPG 1.13 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-110.1%0-25.9%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.0%1-112.9%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.0%2-18.3%2-24.9%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.0%3-13.5%3-22.1%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.5%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.4% 40.0% 2.50 -4.0%

Draw 27.0% 27.8% 3.60 -1.7%

Away win 34.6% 42.0% 2.38 -17.6%

Over 2.5 48.7% 61.7% 1.62 -21.1%

Over 3.5 28.2% 39.2% 2.55 -16.9%

BTTS 55.4% 66.7% 1.50 -16.9%

Home O1.5 46.9% 48.8% 2.05 -3.9%

Away O1.5 32.0% 51.3% 1.95 -37.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 111 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 51%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -14.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 49% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 0–0 8.6%

#3 1–0✓ 11.0%

#4 2–1 8.3%

#5 0–1 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sydney FC B1.3

NWS Spirit1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

SYDNEY FC B · PPG 1.40

NWS SPIRIT · PPG 1.13

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.40), Away AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Sydney FC B (H) 38.4%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -4.0%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -1.7%

NWS Spirit (A) 34.6%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -17.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sydney FC B face NWS Spirit in Australia - New South Wales NPL on Friday, June 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sydney FC B a 38% chance, the draw 27% and NWS Spirit 35%, so Sydney FC B are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sydney FC B and 1.2 for NWS Spirit (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sydney FC B are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 1.13 for NWS Spirit. This match finished 1-0.

Sydney FC B vs NWS Spirit Prediction— Australia - New South Wales NPL

Match Preview & Prediction

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