Today / Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 / A. Astorga vs Burgos B

A. Astorga vs Burgos B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Group 1 - 32 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 15:30

A. Astorga

PPG 1.27 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Burgos B

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+21.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-14.0%0-21.9%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.0%1-18.8%1-24.3%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.0%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.4%3-17.3%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-07.0%4+-16.9%4+-23.4%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.6% 54.1% 1.85 +21.4%

Draw 19.0% 32.3% 3.10 -41.1%

Away win 15.4% 25.6% 3.90 -39.9%

Over 2.5 62.3% — — —

Over 3.5 40.1% — — —

BTTS 55.9% 54.6% 1.83 +2.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 22 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 36%

Score Hit 50%

ROI -8.9%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 66% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 1–0 9.0%

#4 1–1 8.8%

#5 3–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

A. Astorga2.2

Burgos B1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.3% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

A. ASTORGA · PPG 1.27

BURGOS B · PPG 0.73

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.27) > Away POOR (0.73)

Win probability 1X2

A. Astorga (H) 65.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +21.4%

Draw 19.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -41.1%

Burgos B (A) 15.4%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -39.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

A. Astorga face Burgos B in Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives A. Astorga a 66% chance, the draw 19% and Burgos B 15%, so A. Astorga are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for A. Astorga and 1.0 for Burgos B (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, A. Astorga are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 0.73 for Burgos B. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +21.4%. This match finished 0-0.

A. Astorga vs Burgos B Prediction— Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Match Preview & Prediction

More Spain - Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 Predictions